Tuesday, April 23, 2013

Faster Govt Decisions a Positive for Cairn

Cairn India’s results for the March 2013 quarter must have come as a relief to investors worried about the stock’s recent lacklustre show. The company’s production has been stagnant, but it is working on plans to scale it up gradually. Faster government decisions in the E&P space is a key positive for the company. Cairn India’s production rate in the last quarter of the previous fiscal was 1,26,623 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), 1.1% lower quarter on quarter. This was mainly due to an early onset of natural decline at its key Mangala field. This is what spooked the markets, leading to the stock’s underperformance so far in 2013; Cairn’s scrip has fallen over 8% against the BSE Sensex’s fall of just about 1.5%.
These worries have been priced into the stock. The company’s plans for other fields are likely to make up for the dwindling production at Mangala, even as it seeks government nod for its enhanced oil recovery programme’s field development plan (FDP). The company has also commenced natural gas sales, which could go up in future.
The company’s second-biggest field, Bhagyam, will achieve its peak production of 40,000 barrel per day (bopd) in the second half of FY14 from over 20,000 bopd at present, while the smaller Aishwarya field will reach a 
milestone of 10,000 barrels daily in the first half. Similarly, the company expects to commence production from the Barmer Hill formation this year subject to timely approvals. The company also plans to drill 450 more wells for exploration, appraisal and development purpose over the next three years to support production volumes.
“We expect to exit FY14 with a production rate of 2,00,000 - 2,15,000 bopd at the Rajasthan block, against the current production of 1,75,000 bopd,” said P Elango, interim CEO and wholetime director, Cairn India, during a media conference call after the results. This means the company should be able to maintain or marginally improve its production in FY14 compared with FY13. Also, there is a potential upside available from incremental exploration in the Rajasthan block or the gas discoveries in its Sri Lankan block. Elango said the company is set to get a better price for its crude oil in FY14, which is sold at a discount to the widely followed Brent bench
mark in accordance with its quality. “As against the 10-15% discount to Brent crude oil prices till now, we are revising our guidance to 8-13% discount,” he said. The stock’s under-performance has pulled down the company’s valuation — now at a P/E of 4.6 — to the lowest among peers. Faster government decisions in the exploration and production segment, the company’s track record in project implementation and its potential for growth should assuage investors’ worries.


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