Chennai Petroleum: The Fairest Of Them All

Chennai Petroleum’s current valuations and future prospects make it a promising investment opportunity in the domestic refining sector
PUBLIC SECTOR refinery companies are witnessing a revival in investor interest following a global trend of rising refining margins. During the recent rally, most of these companies touched their 52-week peaks. Among these, standalone refineries look more attractive than integrated companies.
Standalone refiners have petroleum-refining facilities and rely on the integrated players to market and sell their products in the domestic retail market. Integrated refiners such as IndianOil (IOC), Bharat Petroleum (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum (HPCL) have refining, as well as retail marketing channels.
Due to government regulation on retail prices of major petroleum products, integrated refiners suffer from under-recoveries arising out of sales of these products. On the other hand, standalone refiners no longer need to share these under-recoveries with their integrated counterparts and this makes them more attractive in the oil refining sector.
Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals (MRPL), Chennai Petroleum (CPCL) and Bongaigaon Refinery and Petrochemicals (BRPL) are the listed players in the standalone refining space. To help readers find the right pick in this segment, IG did a comparative analysis of the three companies.
MRPL:Located on the western coast, MRPL, an ONGC subsidiary, is the largest among the three with a refining capacity of 12 million tonnes per annum (mtpa). The MRPL scrip has gained nearly 70% in the past one month alone. At the current stock price, MRPL’s enterprise value as a multiple of its operating profit (EV/EBIDTA) is much higher than that of the other two refiners. Also, its refining capacity is valued way higher (m-cap/refining capacity). The refinery is operating at high utilisation rates, recording nearly 106% throughput during the first half of FY08. For future growth, MRPL is expanding its capacity to 15 mtpa by ’10. Given a healthy operating performance and promising future ahead, the MRPL scrip has already run up substantially and the current valuations appear to be on the higher side compared to its peers.
BRPL: BRPL, the smallest in the lot, is IOC’s subsidiary. It has gained over 40% on the bourses during the past one month. At the current price, its stock attracts the lowest P/E compared to the P/Es of other two refineries.
As BRPL operates in the North-East, it enjoys excise duty exemption, which has enabled it to report consistently higher operating margins compared to the others. BRPL’s return on capital employed (RoCE) has also been substantially higher and it enjoys a de-leveraged balance sheet. Considering the last dividend of Rs 3.5 per share, the dividend yield works out to a neat 3.5% — the highest among its peers.
However, BRPL faces problems regarding sourcing crude oil and it has not been able to utilise its capacities fully. Another problem — and a major one — is that, BRPL is set to merge with IOC at an exchange ratio of four IOC shares for every 37 BRPL shares. This limits the upside in the scrip. In fact, at the current price of IOC shares, BRPL shareholders stand to lose around Rs 30 per share.
CPCL: CPCL has so far been a laggard on the bourses, gaining just around 24% during the past one month. Its fundamentals are healthy and its expansion plans will drive future growth. The company’s low equity base means that any profitability growth brings in a more than proportionate jump in its share price.
CPCL’s current valuations appear cheap on various parameters. Both the key valuation multiples — m-cap/net sales and EV/EBIDTA — are at the lower end compared to the other two refineries. Similarly, its refining capacity is valued very cheap.
The company’s performance has been robust historically and it has drawn up plans for future profit growth. Recently, the company commissioned a 17.6-mw capacity wind power project, which is eligible for carbon credits. CPCL is also expanding its refining capacity to 12 mtpa from the current 10.5 mtpa. The company has been continuously investing in improving its energy efficiency, as well as its product mix, which will help it to improve its margins, going forward. Relatively cheap valuations make this company an ideal choice of investment. Investors with a 12-month horizon can consider investing in it.